Well, it is over two years since I wrote about Article 50 being triggered, I seem to remember at the time that it would be a bit of a bumpy ride. I did say it a little in jest at the time, I have to say though that I had no idea that it would turn into shit-show that Brexit has become and it will only get worse before it gets better.
Just for transparency here, I voted to remain in the European Union as I thought that it was the most stable thing to do at the time, and nothing that has happened has changed my mind. I still believe that we are giving too much away for some kind of ideology that is likely never to happen. The way that the leave campaign sold leaving the European Union, we are going to be the greatest Utopian society that anyone could ever imagine. I still have my doubts. The remain campaign does not get a free pass here either. The ‘Project Fear’ idiocy was completely the wrong tac to take and it backfired big time.
So, where are we on the situation now? I am not one of those remoaners who happens to believe the result should be overturned. I still think it is a mistake and I will happily debate with anyone why it was a mistake, but democracy needs to be upheld. I never thought that we would get any kind of decent deal with the European Union, after all, we are the ones walking away so why should they do anything to help us, and take the chance it emboldens another country to try the same. The soundbites like “it will be the easiest deal of all time”, were exactly that, they were just soundbites. I have been convinced for over 18 months that we would be walking away without a deal.
I just do not see how the uncertainty over trade, currency devaluation and most of all security cooperation was worth it. I am still far from convinced that the GFA will make it unscathed through the process either. No doubt after we leave without a satisfactory deal the blame will start to be apportioned. We will blame the EU and the EU will blame the UK. There will be no trade talks, as the requirement for these was the passing of the Withdrawl Agreement. I am sure tariffs will begin to bite as well as other things that could have been avoided. Pretty sure the UK’s credit rating will be lowered which will just add to the problems
It will be interesting to see if the government will offset any losses from leaving the EU to industry. Agriculture will certainly need help with 40% tariffs on exports to the EU and many others to a lesser degree. I really hope that the current government have a fiscal plan to offset any chance of recession, as that would cause some very serious questions for the ‘leavers’ to answer after all the said it was just ‘Project Fear’. We will find out before very long who was right and who was wrong in the differing propaganda campaigns.
The EU problem has brought yet another Conservative Prime Minister down after Thatcher and Major. I could actually feel sorry for Boris Johnson if I thought that he was trying to do the best for the country. Unfortunately, though Mr Johnson is all about himself and I do not see that changing anytime soon. I do not think it will matter how many ‘ten a penny’ Special Advisors he brings on-board, whose main claim to fame seems to be doing newspaper reviews on Sky News. I truly believe Europe will bring him down as well. Both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party need to split as you can’t keep going on with the two parties in one, at some point, it has to break.
This whole sorry episode in the UK’s history has just reaffirmed that it was too risky to have a referendum on this when it was not needed. David Cameron has a lot to answer for and the idea of a referendum on membership of the EU should have been cut off at the knees and should never have seen the light of day. The current Labour Party come out of this just as badly and have been beyond poor but that is what happens when your best parliamentary talent languishes on the back-benches.
In conclusion, it was voted for so we need to get on with it. I will say this though to anyone who voted for Brexit. Do not start complaining if you end up poorer, less safe or with less more expensive food on your table because as Mr Johnson keeps reminding you. No Deal Brexit is what you voted for. Hope you will enjoy ‘Taking Back Control’.